SENECA FALLS, NY – Farmers always have an eye on the sky, as weather impacts so much of what they do. But paying attention to long-term weather patterns can help farmers plan their long-term strategies, according to Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist with Nutrien.
He presented “Chasing Water, Wind & the Science of Weather” at the recent 2025 New York Corn & Soybean Summer Crop Tour, hosted by Rodman Lott & Son Farms.
It used to be the Midwest was “tornado alley” – however, Reardon said the reach of tornadoes is stretching to the Northeast. So far, 2025 has ranked third over the past 50 years for tornadoes in the region. It’s still not as frequent as in the Midwest, but it’s beginning to make states like New York more like tornado hotspots.
“But when we have years like this, I know it will be a good year for crops,” Reardon said. “Where we have moisture for crops, we have severe weather.”
Sufficient rain (but not too much) can mean a bumper crop. Severe weather can also lay out a crop in mere minutes.
He shared a video clip that depicted a tornado tossing a farmhouse like a hay bale. A storm such as that can easily pluck entire cornstalks right out of the ground as it can lay them flat.
Reardon said 2025 has also proven to be the second busiest wind event year in the U.S. in the past 30 years. Many farms nationwide are also experiencing mild drought.
“It’s incredibly frustrating and simple,” Reardon said of drought. “The biggest predictor of drought is current drought.”
With low snowfall in the winter of 2024-25 (except for record-setting snow in the South and lake effect snow bands near the Great Lakes) and a dry spring in many regions, many farms lack rain. Reardon said the persistent heat waves aren’t helping, as the temperature isn’t falling below 70º F during a 24-hour period. High overnight temperatures hamper corn development.
“I’d love to see more rain,” Reardon said. “It hasn’t been oppressively hot, but it’s been hot. What it comes down to is who’s getting the water and who needs it and who can conserve it.”
Tassel wrap negatively affects pollination. Photo by Deborah J. Sergeant
Another issue for corn this season is pollination caused by tassel wrap, when the highest leaf of the plant does not open enough for the tassel to release pollen. In periods of high temperatures, the silk may lose its ability to receive pollen, stunting corn development. Reardon hasn’t seen many reports of pollination issues in New York but added that both New York and Pennsylvania are below average for rain.
One developing means of foretelling weather is using an AI model weather predictor. Though at first Reardon was skeptical of their ability to accurately predict weather, he admitted that AI models outperform all other models. They can also produce a prediction within 60 seconds that would take meteorologists seven hours to make.
“It is very expensive to train AI,” Reardon said. “The traditional paradigm will be more useful for local thunderstorms.”
Reardon said 2025 is a “La Niña” year, which increases the chances of a rainy autumn based upon La Niña years tracked from 1948 – 2024. By harvest, farmers in the Northeast will have more precipitation, but Reardon said that “just because it’s wetter than average during harvest doesn’t mean a washout for harvest.”
For the sake of increased temperatures, more rain can be a good thing – even during harvest – considering the overall dry conditions that have prevailed all year.
“If we’re getting hotter, we’ll need more rainfall to keep up,” Reardon added.
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