Oscar Garrison, senior vice president of food safety and regulatory affairs for United Egg Producers (UEP), addressed the issue of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) recently at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum. What he expressed about the status of the current outbreak of was sobering.
“This has been devastating to the poultry industry – nothing less,” said Garrison. “Layers had their first detection April of 2015. By June it was gone, and we lost 34 million birds. But it went away. Shame on us for not continuing to do a lot of the research we needed to do because it was a one-off. We saw some sporadic events happen between 2015 and 2022, but in February 2022, this thing hit and has not let up.”
Garrison outlined what the poultry industry has lost since the most recent outbreak began through the first two months of 2025, starting with 1,600 flocks totaling 166 million birds. In January and February 2025, 42 farms and 30 million birds have been lost.
“If you want to know why we have egg shortages,” he said, “take 30 million birds out of a flock. That’s the reason right there.”
Researchers working on HPAI are critical and hold the key to helping the poultry industry find answers and solutions that will allow the industry to become sustainable again. “That’s the bottom line,” said Garrison. “I thank [Ag] Secretary [Brooke] Rollins and the administration for the funding announcement and the rapid movement to provide additional funding for research, the vaccine component and many other pieces. But the needs are still huge.”
One of the biggest missing pieces for mitigating HPAI is epidemiology (the study of the distribution, determinants and control of diseases and other health-related events). Also important is analyzing what’s happening on HPAI-positive farms and -negative farms within a tight geographic area.
Risk factors and risk mitigation must be evaluated to discover what can be done to prevent the spread. Another research need is strong modeling to show the risk of wildlife transmission.
While HPAI outbreaks have been historically related to wild birds, the virus has changed. The current challenge arrived with the first detection of the B3.13 genotype of HPAI in April 2024. “We lost over 30 million birds related to B3.13 alone during the outbreak,” said Garrison. “We need to look more at transmission and mitigations – virus dynamics, transmission and how it’s getting into barns.”
Although poultry producers are aware of the importance of high-level biosecurity, such measures aren’t a silver bullet. Garrison noted that some highly secure, shower-in/shower-out facilities are affected, and the virus is somehow finding its way inside breeder farms considered “bulletproof.”
Managing airflow and ventilation may be key to keeping HPAI out of poultry facilities, but that’s a difficult aspect to manage when air in poultry houses is exchanged every minute, and more frequently in summer. Filters aren’t yet a viable solution.
“Rodent and wildlife carriers and this whole peridomestic (animals that live in and around humans) piece has changed the game,” said Garrison. “Animals found on and around farms like mice, rabbits, raccoons, sparrows and pigeons are being affected by this virus.”
The UEP represents 90% of U.S. egg production, and when a member has an HPAI detection, a call is arranged to discuss what the farmer saw, bird symptoms, what was different this time and government reaction. They also ask the location of sick birds in the house, and the answer is almost always “at the top level, next to an inlet.”
“Anecdotally, we think that’s significant, but is it shedding from the wild birds and falling from the sky?” said Garrison. “Dead sandhill cranes have fallen out of the sky in Indiana, landing 20 feet from the back door of a poultry house. The virus is everywhere, and that’s what we’ve had to wrap our head around. How can we not have some movement, particularly in high wind events?”
One problem is that some aspects of HPAI research must be done in real-time. “We have to look at it differently and throw all the resources at it while it’s going on in case it does miraculously go away,” said Garrison. “It’s going to pop its ugly head back up, and I don’t want to miss an opportunity to study aerosol transmission.” He added there is currently almost no research on aerosol transmission of HPAI.
It’s critical that the industry develops and initiates new disease outbreak controls. “What can we do for depopulation procedures and reduce the risk for further transmission?” asked Garrison. “We know vaccines are controversial, and members of the other feathered groups are worried about what it would do to trade in the long-term. We need a comprehensive vaccine strategy for all species that need it. We also need alternative delivery methods versus injectables.”
While many consumers understand the reason for high egg prices, few understand the relationship between disease and cage-free environments. Losing 45% of cage-free flocks to HPAI is problematic, and much of the pressure for cage-free eggs is from animal rights organizations as well as stakeholder initiatives and customers.
“Some people want to buy cage-free,” said Garrison. “As one of my customers said, ‘If somebody wants me to play Mozart music and pick up the eggs in purple suits, if they’ll pay for it, we’ll do it.’ But in moving to cage-free, if a vaccine strategy does come on board, one day of age would be easy (to vaccinate), or maybe at pullet stage when they’re moved. But for a vaccine to have the efficacy to protect birds for 80 to 120 weeks will require injecting birds. There’s no alternative delivery method.”
Garrison emphasized the near impossibility of chasing and catching cage-free birds for vaccination, and the number of birds that would be missed would result in a rise in susceptibility in the flock. Under current standards, one bird or one flock on a farm diagnosed with HPAI means the entire flock is depopulated.
“We really need a comprehensive HPAI strategy initiative,” Garrison emphasized. “Engage the experts in the industry, universities and government with the expanded knowledge and developed methods of prevention, detection and response.”
He hopes the recent announcement of additional HPAI funding will help with research needs and enable laboratories and critical researchers to work with sufficient funding that will allow continued research.
“The path we’re on right now is not sustainable for the layer industry,” said Garrison. “If HPAI continues and continues to spread as we saw it go into dairy cattle, what’s next?”
by Sally Colby
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