It’s time to take another look at current soil nutrient commodity prices. These numbers come from research compiled by Jeff Cassim, general manager of Liquid Products in Seneca Falls. Cassim extracts his data from fertilizer industry periodicals – not just commodity prices, but geopolitical facts impacting energy commodities as well as plant food raw materials.
These are average values calculated from a range of dollar prices per short ton for the day of quote (Feb. 13, 2025). The location of the quote is the freight point-of-origin nearest the Northeast. In parentheses is that commodity’s price year-earlier (on Feb. 13, 2024):
Urea (Cincinnati) $455 ($408); ammonium nitrate (Mid-South) $335 ($315); ammonium sulfate (Minneapolis) $478 ($350); urea/ammonium nitrate (Cincinnati) $323 ($295); ammonia (Eastern Corn Belt) $608 ($600); diammonium phosphate (DAP) (Cincinnati) $643 ($648); mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP) (Cincinnati) $648 ($680); muriate of potash (Vancouver) $260 ($230); sulfate of potash (West Coast) $608 ($640); and sulfur (S) (Gulf Coast) $172 ($71).
The push-and-pull economies of the fertilizer ingredient world are boring compared to 36 months ago. At that time, it seemed as though Ukraine/Russia headlines manipulated the natural gas playing field globally. Russia controls much of Europe’s natural gas. They milked that cow for all it was worth, basically trying to freeze out their military opponents. That natural gas crisis spread from Ukraine’s home heating chaos to the economics of fertilizer manufacturing worldwide.
At the risk of appearing repetitive, I believe a review of the relationship between natural gas and commercial fertilizer is beneficial. We begin with natural gas (methane – chemically, CH4). Methane and water are combined and subjected to high temperature and extreme pressure. The resulting chemical reaction yields carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen (H) gas.
Earth’s atmosphere is 78% nitrogen (N), which is removed from the air by fractional distillation. This N is blended with the isolated H, under very high pressure and temperatures. Thus blended, one N and three Hs become one anhydrous ammonia (NH3) molecule. Add the right amount of CO2 to the NH3 molecule – along with high temperature and pressure – and there you have it: urea.
With Cassim’s help, I’ll try to read between the lines on the above dollar figures. Fertilizer market expectations for 2025 corn acreage bounce between 93 and 95 million acres. Urea exports destined for corn growers in the U.S. figure to be about 340,000 short tons. Expected elevated corn prices are a big factor in increasing intended corn plantings, as well as the demand for ammonia. Fertilizer input sellers are already poised to meet the demands from prospective customers.
Also supporting urea prices is India’s intention to import large quantities of this input. Demand for ammonia is expected to increase, when, according to Cassim, “application volumes are expected to rebound from a relatively light fall season that was hindered by poor weather and soil conditions.”
Mississippi water levels at St. Louis dropped last week, disrupting urea supply in that region. Increases in expected corn plantings had helped shore up ammonia prices.
Regarding the second major soil nutrient (quoting Cassim’s sources again), “Phosphate prices edged higher this week on more limited trade, but overall anticipated demand for spring applications strengthened, which should keep prices higher in the coming weeks.”
We should note that MAP and DAP prices did not change much from year earlier. The global urea market is expecting large purchases from India, shoring up that commodity’s prices. The big picture outlook for P is firm, thus phosphate prices edged higher last week on more limited trade. But overall anticipated demand for spring applications strengthened, which in turn should keep prices higher in the coming weeks.
The gorilla in the P room is China. The globe’s second largest economy has clamped down on phosphate exports to avoid any chance of short-changing the fertilizer needs of their own farmers. What the total global impact will be on the local supply/demand scenario for this nutrient isn’t known yet.
Similarly, potash rose week-over-week at Gulf Coast locations. Barge loads were sold at mostly higher prices, driven largely by expected abundant spring applications of this input. Also impacting these prices was the continued potential for a 25% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods. Potash prices across the U.S. are expected to climb more as the spring season gets closer.
Tariffs will likely prove quite influential in international fertilizer trade involving the U.S. About six years ago, tariffs placed on U.S. soybeans exported to China chased Chinese buyers into the welcoming arms of Brazilian soybean growers. Stay tuned on this one.
Turning to S, we see a dramatic market. Ammonium sulfate costs increased significantly year-over-year: 37% (478/350). And S increased by 142% (172/71). Some of this increase is due to the fact that slow refinery turnaround times are limiting S availability.
Industry sources state that North American S markets should remain strong as lower output and rising export prices convince “consumers to keep domestic volumes onshore, especially as fertilizer producers ramp up operations ahead of the spring – while tariffs loom.”
Sulfur is critical in protein formation in all plants: without it, the essential amino acids methionine and cysteine cannot be synthesized. Thus, a common fertilizer recommendation involves applying N and S in a 7:1 ratio (or a 10:1 ratio, depending on the soil’s N situation). Sulfur is clearly a limiting factor for both the quality and quantity of protein in crops.
If we can accept that the assist from Jack Frost helps increase the effective neutralizing value of a liming material, this means that in terms of supporting 2025’s crops, there will still be benefit for applying ground limestone during early spring, if field conditions permit.
When field conditions are right for a frost seeding, do that first – and then apply lime according to test. Fertilizer costs are high enough that the fact that proper pH optimizes the crop’s utilization of soil nutrients (particularly P) is still pretty important.
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