Let’s examine current soil nutrient commodity prices. These prices come from research compiled by Jeff Cassim, general manager of Liquid Products in Seneca Falls. Cassim extracts his data from fertilizer industry periodicals – not just commodity prices, but geopolitical facts impacting energy commodities as well as plant food raw materials.
These are average values calculated from a range of dollar prices per short ton for the day of quote (Sept. 5, 2024). The location of the quote is the freight point-of-origin nearest the Northeast. In parentheses is that commodity’s price on Sept. 5, 2023:
Urea (Cincinnati) $348 ($455); ammonium nitrate (Mid-South) $278 ($323); ammonium sulfate (Minneapolis) $340 ($315); urea/ammonium nitrate (Cincinnati) $247 ($245); ammonia (Eastern Corn Belt) $553 ($575); diammonium phosphate (Cincinnati) $592 ($580); mono-ammonium phosphate (Cincinnati) $685 ($683); muriate of potash (Vancouver) $233 ($283); sulfate of potash (West Coast) $610 ($640); and sulfur (S) (Gulf Coast) $82 ($60).
The dynamics of fertilizer ingredient economics is boring compared to 30 months ago. At that time, it seemed as though Ukraine/Russia headlines manipulated the natural gas playing field globally. Russia controls much of Europe’s natural gas. They “milked that cow” for all it was worth, basically trying to freeze out their military opponents. That natural gas crisis spread from Ukraine’s home heating chaos to the economics of fertilizer manufacturing worldwide.
Reviewing the relationship between natural gas and commercial fertilizer is productive: we begin with natural gas (methane – chemically, CH4). Methane and water are combined and subjected to high temperature and extreme pressure. The resulting chemical reaction yields carbon dioxide (CO2) and hydrogen (H) gas. Earth’s atmosphere is 78% nitrogen (N), which is removed from the air by fractional distillation. This N is blended with the isolated H, also under very high pressure and temperatures. Thus blended, one N and three Hs become an anhydrous ammonia (NH3) molecule. Add the right amount of CO2 to the NH3 molecule – along with high temperature and pressure – and bingo: urea.
According to Cassim, global spot demand for NH3 is expected to remain low through the end of the third quarter through the fertilizer off-season. Expectations for autumn application volumes are weak as NH3 spot prices continue to climb, fueled by global market dynamics, while crop prices generally remain low. Domestically, Oklahoma’s NH3 production is increasing.
Moving into the phosphorus (P) arena, diammonium phosphate (DAP) experienced soft trading while monoammonium phosphate (MAP) values stayed fairly dormant. Overall phosphate purchasing interest dwindled in recent weeks, as most buyers are satisfied with earlier acquisitions. Thus, they are focusing more on moving existing inventory for fall demand.
With the third soil nutrient, we see potash prices remaining most stable at September’s start as trade picked up. However, demand is expected to accelerate in the coming weeks as farmers move to secure phosphates and potash ahead of winter closing in on the upper Mississippi. But prices should have limited upward movement due to the volume of high imports.
Back to N briefly – some distributors are not planning to purchase spot volumes of ammonia way ahead of application season, motivated by concerns over low corn and soybean selling prices. Prices of other N fertilizer products remained broadly stable in the Corn Belt and Midwest. However, spot ammonia prices continued climbing, fueled by global market dynamics, while domestic spot trade softened throughout the third quarter.
Seesawing back to P, we see that U.S. DAP prices on Sept. 5 had edged higher on minimal trade and lower supply, while MAP prices remained unchanged on fresh trade. This was because most buyers remained satisfied with earlier summer purchases, saddled with expectations that autumn demand would be lower than usual.
The gorilla in the P room is China. The globe’s second largest economy has clamped down on phosphate exports to avoid any chance of shortchanging the fertilizer needs of their own farmers. What the total global impact will be on the local supply/demand scenario for this nutrient isn’t known yet.
Here in Northeast, Indian summer is a good time to feed living crops soluble nutrients – particularly winter forages. These include wheat, rye, triticale (a hybrid of the first two), speltz and barley. Soluble nutrients that can be fed to these species include urea (hopefully in protected form), MAP, DAP and injected liquid manure slurry. These are taken up and metabolized by these winter forages.
New York field research has found that up to 60 lbs. of N/acre increased spring yields of fall-planted triticale by 43% on fields without prior spring/summer manure applications. Early plantings and autumn N applications significantly increased tillering, which in turn set the spring yield potential.
Even with autumn N applications, most agronomists recommend including S, with a 10:1 ratio of N:S. However, bear in mind that rye plants, the tallest of the winter forage species, tend to be more prone to lodging with N rates exceeding 50 lbs./acre in autumn.
Nutrients that can be applied to soils – with or without winter forages – include mined and/or unrefined amendments like ground limestones, rock phosphates, bone meal and some forms of potash. These items feed the soil rather than the growing plants directly. These also greatly benefit from the freeze/thaw action of northern soils during winter, which serves to make otherwise bound-up nutrients more available to crops come spring. This Jack Frost benefit of enhanced soil nutrient availability proves that money spent this autumn on these inputs shows a handsome return on investment at harvest time next spring.
If we can accept that the assist from Jack Frost helps increase the effective neutralizing value of a liming material, this means that – in terms of supporting next year’s crops – we can likely get by applying less lime this autumn than would be required with a spring 2025 application.
Field conditions in the Northeast are generally pretty passable. I’ve taken many soil samples in the last couple weeks in Central New York. Who knows what field conditions will be next spring?
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