One week into Daylight Savings Time, as the sun was starting to set, the sky in our part of Central New York got dark. That darkness soon framed lightning bolts which hit every few minutes for about an hour. The first flash-to-bang time was seven or eight seconds.
With speed of sound at approximately 1,000 feet/second, this meant that the first lightning bolt struck ground (or trees) about 1.5 miles from our downtown Hartwick home.
This electrical storm was caused by the southern branch of the northern jet stream surging northward. In this event, a warmer moisture-laden air mass slammed into a drier, colder air mass originating farther north. This merger caused huge amounts of condensation, and similarly great electrical activity, plus rapidly dropping air temperature.
Here’s the climate significance of this late winter electric storm, occurring on March 16: Exactly one-half year from that date, the jet stream is supposed to do the exact opposite, allowing a frigid air mass to plunge into our region. That said, we should experience a killer frost on/about Sept. 16.
Scientifically, here’s the basis for this first autumn-time frost forecast: The climatological factor calling the shots here is the jet stream polar drift rule. This states that the first serious springtime electrical storm (in latitudes near the 45th parallel, halfway between the equator and the north pole) will be followed six months later by autumn’s first killer frost. The 45th parallel runs through Canton, NY.
That’s how the jet stream phenomenon is supposed to play out – unless El Niño (“Little Boy”) and La Niña (“Little Girl”) “misbehave.” El Niño occurs when Pacific Sea surface temperature (PSST) rises more than 2.7º above normal for that particular time of year. La Niña occurs when the PSST drops more than 2.7º below normal for that time of year. With the current climatological tug-of-war between the “children” being relatively tame, I’m fairly comfortable making that six-month projected forecast.
My comfort level is backed up by the following March 13, 2025 statement from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): “The probability of El Niño remains very low throughout the forecast period, increasing gradually from 1% in April-June to 20% in November-January 2025-26.”
The dynamic between El Niño and La Niña is framed by climate change, which is intensified by the build-up of atmospheric greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane. Increasing global surface temperatures, more droughts and heightened storm intensity are becoming more likely. With very few exceptions, atmospheric scientists examining the bigger picture believe the following are recent examples of manifest climate change:
In 2022, most of the Mississippi Basin (all three rivers) was quite dehydrated, seriously compromising river traffic. In 2023, Canadian wildfire smoke blanketed America’s northern states, slowing down their growing season. 2024’s hurricane season was unusually troublesome. Lastly, in 2025, Los Angeles continues recovering from the worst wildfires it or any U.S. city has ever experienced.
As more water evaporates into the atmosphere, such becomes fuel for more powerful storms developing. More heat in the atmosphere and warmer ocean surface temperatures lead to increased wind speeds in tropical storms. Rising sea levels expose higher land mass locations not usually subjected to the erosive forces of waves and currents.
Despite all this, the above NOAA statement makes me feel comfortable (but not happy) predicting that six months from March 16, most of the Northeast can expect its autumnal first frost on or about Sept. 16.
By the way, the fact that we got an early electric storm on March 16 doesn’t mean that we should expect no more springtime frosts. Having just made a hopefully intelligent estimate at how much frost-free growing season lies ahead, let’s examine another sign of spring awakening: shad blossoms.
Their full-bloom status means it’s time to get the cold-tolerant crop seed into the ground, if growers haven’t already done so. Presently, no local shad trees are approaching full bloom or even partial bloom status. If the ground is dry enough for light tillage to kick loose some dust, it’s time to plant perennial forages, accompanied by their spring small grain nurse crops.
University of Vermont Extension agronomists stress that spring-planted cereal rye won’t set seed and produce grain but that it can be a valuable forage crop. They recommend that folks needing high quality, rapid-growing roughage – either mouth or mechanically harvested – should plant this annual grain ASAP. Cereal rye seed germinates with soil and air temperatures in the 33º – 41º range. Due to its root system – which can grow down at least three feet – cereal rye is drought-tolerant, requiring 20% to 30% less water than wheat. It is hardy with more frost tolerance than wheat, and rye doesn’t need as much fertilizer as corn.
Caution, though: When grazing cereal rye forage, ruminants tend to need more supplemental magnesium, since grain forages tend to run low on that element. To counter a possible bovine metabolic train wreck, most livestock nutritionists prefer the costlier Epsom salt (magnesium sulfate) over magnesium oxide. The liberated, negatively charged sulfate anion helps maintain optimum cation to anion balance in the rumen, minimizing chances for milk fever and grass staggers.
How much does tillage release carbon from the soil? We can get good carbon status assessment by measuring soil organic matter (OM) before and after tillage – and by measuring topsoil depth, before and after tillage. If topsoil depth and soil OM remain the same, we can assume that the field in question is carbon-neutral – OM is presumed to be 58% carbon.
But agronomists stress that any tillage introduces oxygen to soil biology. There, non-plant life transforms oxygen into carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas whose atmospheric build-up intensifies climate change. The early electric storm very likely forecasts the growing season finish – particularly for frost-sensitive crops like corn and soybeans.
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